Thanksgiving is a big enough holiday to have the markets close in the United States. As investors and everyday traders we should probably take the time to reflect and be thankful that the crisis has not extended much deeper into the economy...at least not yet! The strong Q3 GDP was something to be thankful for; it had put aside fears of recession although now they start to show up again.
With our thanks expressed, "Black Friday" will be time to move on and look ahead. We should place plenty of emphasis on this weekend. On Monday we will get the first result from retailers and this should set the tone on whether we will have an end of year rally. Some analysts estimate that this will be the worst Christmas season in five years. This weekend will probably indicate how resilient U.S consumers are. Strong retail numbers will give the stock market a chance for an end of year rally. It could also mean that the crisis remains constrained to the housing and credit markets.
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